Belarus Change Tracker 5

On June 15, 2023, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) with informational support of Press Club Belarus organized an online presentation of the latest edition of the quarterly report called the Belarus Change Tracker (BCT). This was the fifth edition of the report and the second one published in 2023.

The event featured the authors of the BCT chapters who discussed the significant developments in the political, economic, and social spheres of Belarus during the last 3 months. The speakers included Pavel Slunkin, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Artyom Shraibman, the founder of the Sense Analytics Consultancy; Philipp Bikanau, an independent sociologist; Henadz Korshunau, the program director of Belaruskaya Akademia and a senior analyst at the Center for New Ideas; and Lev Lvovskiy, the academic director at BEROC.

Among the main conclusions of the presentation were following:
Russia's increasing control over Belarus is now extending to nuclear matters, as Belarus is being used as a testing ground for Russian nuclear expansion.

Recent incidents, such as the sabotage attack on a Russian aircraft in Machulishchy and increasing acts of sabotage in Russia, have prompted the Belarusian authorities to militarize and secure domestic politics.

Disagreements among EU countries have hindered the adoption of new joint sanctions. Belarus has had time to adapt to the effects of last year's sanctions by deepening economic integration with Russia. At the same time the aging population and emigration are increasingly affecting the labor market in Belarus.

Confidence in the regime's institutions, which had been growing previously, has now stagnated. Belarusian society remains divided due to the ongoing political confrontation, and attitudes toward Russia's war against Ukraine are deeply entrenched.

Recent acts of sabotage in Belarus and Russia have had a significant impact on the actions of the authorities, leading to increased repression, harsher conditions in detention centers, and stricter controls within the country and at its borders.

About Belarus Change Tracker:
Belarus is going through the most turbulent period since its independence. The war in Ukraine, the still unresolved internal political crisis of 2020, persistent mass repressions, unprecedented foreign sanctions and international isolation have all merged into a “perfect storm” for the country.

The situation poses many new challenges to researchers, making it increasingly difficult to identify sustainable and relatively long-term trends through the mists of a controlled information flow.

To address this challenge and provide with quality analyses of Belarusian developments, five Belarusian experts in cooperation with FES have produced 5 quarterly analytical reports (February 2022 - May 2023).

The recording of presentation on YouTube:
Russian version
English version

The publication can be downloaded here:
Russian version
English version